I just read a story about Citrus Greening A disease destined to take down the Citrus industry. A bacteria out of China that is spread by an Asian citrus psyllid, harmless to humans yet deadly to citrus. Economically it attacks the 7 billion dollar Cali citrus industry. Locusts are devouring Africa and the bugs just reached China and other Asian lands.
Of course the big question is Covid-19. Covid-19 appears to have a R0 of around 6 similar to small pox and presently no human immunity. It is highly infective being droplet spread and seems to survive on surfaces for quite a while. It has a split course, 80% show mild symptoms but are highly infective and 20% become severe. It can reinfect meaning you can catch it once and catch it again. It’s mode of death is ARDS and cytokine storm, the storm causing heart failure being especially prevalent in second infections. It tends to kill older and sicker people, like people with diabetes etc. Masks don’t do anything. If you touch a surface and rub your eye you’re infected.
There are 100K ICU beds in the USA likely 85% full at any given time. The idea we are somehow going to escape is laughable. The idea that life will not be severely disrupted is denial of reality.
Japan is about to be hit and overwhelmed, and the rest of Asia will follow suite. Medicine is designed to treat disease on a local basis not arrest epidemics. Arresting an epidemic requires en mass participation of the herd, and a vaccine, and enough time for the herd to become immune. We have none of those tools. A vaccine is 18 months away.
If Covid-19 moves to Africa the famine from the locusts will assure a weakened population. If it gets into South America rest assured it’s coming directly to North America through 2000 miles of porous border. If it gets into Canada we have 3000 miles of porous border to the north. If you hang your hat on WHO or Tony Fauci you’re a fool.
It seems to me the only solution is to become self sufficient for a time when the explosion hits and self quarantine until the herd can attain some level of immunity. That means NOT SHOPPING once the virus explodes but shopping before the virus explodes and hunkering down while nature takes its course.
I’ve lived through 2 dozen hurricanes and the way it works is there is plenty till there is nothing. Hurricanes are a local event and supply comes back from other places in the country in a week or a month. This won’t be like that. Supply won’t come back and if it does it may well be infected. One apartment building has been thought to have spread through water pipes.
My course is to buy enough MRE to cover 3 months and to buy a chest freezer and fill it with meat and hope the power doesn’t go down. Meat is the most caloric and complete food we have. All healing is made from meat. If my predictions do not come to pass I’ll just eat the food PRN and sell the freezer.
I’d be interested in hearing holes in my analysis since our “trusted leaders” seem to be engaged in bullshitting us about the danger.
The market if this comes to pass will die. Supply chains will fold and employment will crater. Given the triple bubble economy, no amount of FED is going to solve this. I’m thinking about buying puts likely leaps as a hedge but still unsure. Puts are the suggestion of one of the market information service products I own. It’s a macabre and perverse way to think but is there another way to approach reality?
We are fed heaping gobs of narrative about investing and everything else. What narratives are we being fed regarding the virus? You can bet Tony Facui has a bunker so he can lead “relief efforts”.
If 80% have a mild course and 20% have a rocky course and 1/3 of those die that’s 21 million dead in the USA alone.