This morning I was cruising youtube looking for virus update and ran across George. I like George. He has a POV similar to mine but not identical. Right now he’s expat living in Columbia. He calls COVID-19 the “cerveza sickness” because youtube demonetizes any channel that mentions corona or covid. Pretty funny since the whole narrative is pretty much about being drunk with greed and schemes. I also like Jeff Snider who George references several times.
His conclusion as to whether this is a 2008 event or a 2018 kind of event is in my opinion correct. Everyone says you can’t time the market but when you hear the whistle and see that big headlight bearing down on you something is up. Could be the train isn’t on our track. Could be the train will pass by on the next track over. Our mouse trap is set. Every asset class is high (except commodities). The planet is deflating no matter what central banks “think”. They are no longer the dog, they are “butt” the tail. In a deflating planet holding debt means the cost of ownership gets worse. You have to pay down the debt in more expensive dollars or go out of business. I totally agree our fate will be determined by our ability to deal with a simple strand of RNA that affixes itself to the ACE receptor and gains intimate entry into the machinery of life itself. There is no greater drama. No Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump, plastic boy Buttigieg, alzin’ Joe or the blow dried boobs at CNN trying to control your mind. This is the real deal and from what I’ve seen so far nobody’s got a clue. It’s like we’re all living on acid.
With the VIX at 45 I wouldn’t be buying anything or selling anything. Pretty much that train left the station a week ago Friday. I talked to my AUM Sunday and he talked me off the ledge, but it was my realizing the train had already left the station 2 days before, while we were talking that sealed my fate. Once you’ve already jumped out of the perfectly good airplane there is nothing left to do but descend. You can’t finance your lie on a 24% credit card forever. No that’s not a typo for life, it’s another name for narrative. Pop some popcorn boys and girls. Maybe revisit some old MMM or WCI articles about simple math or some bullshit. In the meantime it’s 51 degrees, bright and sunny, I got me a Latte, a freezer full of food and a wife that loves me. Life is good.