Money is to be made from BTC and ETH. These will soon enough be adopted by the financial industry because: THERE IS MONEY TO BE MADE FROM BTC AND ETH. Crypto is disruptive technology. Crypto is like moving from riding a horse to driving a car. Crypto is not going to zero. Crypto going to zero is like smart phones going back to landlines. Here is the picture of what is going to happen:
We are just below the little circle half way up the linear growth. There is something called the network effect:
In a fractal sense the picture of the smoke is just a pic of the network upside down. The utility of the network is so revolutionary, so much energy is released, it becomes impossible to go back to the previous state except for major destruction of the infrastructure. This is called creative destruction.
BTC and ETH are different creatures. BTC is an effective store of wealth. It’s highly volatile but it’s volatility has reduced dramatically as it’s become a harder “currency”. When I first bought it in 2015 it had a vol of +- 95% but it NEVER went to zero. Options were created in 2019 and the ability to hedge has dramatically reduced the risk range. In addition BTC banks have been created where BTC can be borrowed and interest paid in BTC. Gold is the closest equivalent. BTC was plentiful at its inception but it is capped at 21M coins. After 21M no more coins will be mined. The rate of return for mining a coin keeps halfing every 5 years. The cost of mining a coin is the energy it takes to do the computation. The cost of mining gold is the cost of extracting an ounce. That is golds bottom line. Also gold is pretty scarce, and so it also is “hard” plus gold doesn’t oxidize so it is stable as a wealth store over millennia. It does have a cost of storage where BTC does not and is more portable. BTC and gold today have similar hardness. After the next halfing BTC will be harder and the base cost of mining will increase because the profit margin in mining will decrease. So the value in BTC is intrinsically biased to growth for a very long time. BTC is yet to be adopted widely but since money can be made a market exists and since BTC is infinitely divisible there is no barrier to ownership. As the price increases you will simply own a smaller % of the 21M total and your stake will be a converted multiple of the currency you wish to convert into. You can invest in Dollars and redeem in Yen. Because the coins are fixed in amount the price per coin is the market variable. Once BTC starts to penetrate as a financial instrument it’s scarcity will force a rise in price. The last coin is slated to be mined in 2140 and today there are 18.6M in circulation, so as time goes on BTC becomes less compliant, scarcer, harder and will grow in value. I consider BTC an energy function equivalent to potential energy (the integral of work) measured in KWH
ETH on the other hand is uncapped in number. ETH is a technology tied to work not potential energy. ETH has a software layer which allows contracts to be executed for pay. Let’s assume you have a computation to do and I have a computer that fits your need. We write a contract where I do the computation and you get the result and I get some ETH which pays for my computation cost plus some profit. Once the contract is executed at the completion of my work, the transfer is transparent, immediate and permanent. You get the data and I get the ETH. That’s the concept. So ETH provides a basis for transparent contractual commerce peer to peer, and so provides a different function in an economy compared to BTC. Both are traded on a market but what drives price are based on different market variables including the ability/inability of purchasers to correctly value its utility but it’s utility will normalize over time. Since ETH is not capped it doesn’t have the kind of hardness BTC does but its utility and value lays in the efficiency in the work it can do. Both are loaded for growth IMHO. I own both so I don’t need an opinion on “which is better”. Both are disruptive technologies. This year ETH has seen explosive growth, in the past BTC was the killer. I own them in a ratio but the ratio is variable not fixed. Since they are completely divisible you can easily DCA or pay a lump sum. Will they pull back? I have no idea. When Fidelity etc starts retailing crypto, investment advisors can put crypto into client accounts, and demand for peer to peer worldwide commerce expands, I don’t see the price going down.
So what is BTC volatility?
GZV (gold) 20.09%
VXAP (apple) 34.49%
VXAZ (amazon) 32.76%
GDX (goldminers) 41.15%
OVX (oil) 42.84%
VXN (QQQ) 25.99%
VIX (SPX) 21.64%