2021 Prognostication

Paul Pal from Real Vision released his 2021 prognosis into Youtube. Definitely worth the 34 minutes. Real v predicted jobs numbers were off by 350% meaning the government got it wrong by 4.5x. It was 1st week Jan so likely the liquidation has started in small business. I read the NEJM article on the Pfizer vax, 95% effective with 2 doses spaced @ 3 weeks at reducing deaths. Doesn’t say a damn thing about reducing morbidity. I read an article out of Wuhan that claimed 75% of virus survivors have some kind of ongoing morbidity. Another article out of Europe claiming viral immunity is reduced in 52% of people recovered from infection 6 mos post infection. I heard Biden admin was considering ordering 1 dose instead of 2 in order to jab twice as many with half as much. I have no idea if that’s true but I also have no idea what happens to efficacy with a 1 jab solution. I read an article where a hospital CEO was preparing for a surge of deaths because of inadequate infrastructure to support the sick. This doesn’t sound like happy days are here again by summer to me.

Japan, Europe, US, and China still face a demographic economic disaster as my generation retires. Retirement by definition is deflationary. Money printer go brrrrr won’t cause retirees to spend money. If anything it will cause them to save money. Money printing is asymptotically tachyphilactic. I’ve read studies that it takes a 1.5 to 2 x increase over the previous brrrrr to get an effect. In places like Iran Egypt Africa and India the population is young and not adverse to families which is fertile ground to create a middle class and middle class stimulates economic growth and commerce. There is a reason when you call some tech company customer service is in India. You may hate the experience but the guy who picks up the phone gets relatively well paid and he/she will buy a couch or car with that dough.

Many are predicting a bad second half. The drumbeat is loud enough further investing at this time gives me pause. The volatility of Apple Google Amazon IBM VIX are all up double digits reminiscent of early 2020. The greed index is at 70% so fear is the next most likely cycle move. The higher greed goes the more likely fear follows. Commodities are exhibiting volatility decreases

BTC is down 2.71% for the day, but up 11.3% for the week and 89% for the month. ETH down 1.78 for the day, up 3.7% for the week and 93% for the month.

Let’s see what Mr. Pal says:

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